A theory of change can feel intimidating and hard to grasp, but it’s also a powerful method and tool to describe how a given intervention is expected to lead to specific changes.

The theory of change makes the steps to change explicit, whether through a diagram or written description of the strategies, actions, preconditions and resources needed to facilitate or accelerate progress toward a long-term outcome. In this sense, it’s both a conceptual model and a concrete product that reflects the model.

In the education sector, the starting line for theories of change is often an assessment of the current situation that identifies barriers to improving learning outcomes created by existing pedagogic and system management practices or behaviors.

These barriers are then situated within their larger ecosystems as we look at how key policy and system interdependencies, power structures and stakeholder relationships would need to shift, be better joined up and aligned to positively impact on instructional quality, learning and overall education system performance.

This is based on assumptions (hence the ‘theory’) about how change will happen, while reality is of course messier. For this reason, clarity on how to measure desired shifts, check-ins at key milestones, feedback and opportunities for iteration are built into a theory of change model.

Theory of change in GPE partner countries

In GPE partner countries, the theory of change is central to the partnership compact, how reforms are designed and put into practice. Based on information from enabling factor analysis and other types of evidence on current conditions in the education sector, it sets out core objectives, strategic directions, resources and collaborations needed as well as the key shifts required for ministries to move from the initial stage of prioritizing reform areas to making them a reality.

Whether the focus is on foundational learning, teacher professional development, competency-based education or organizational transformation, the theory of change makes it possible to move along a country’s system transformation pathway—from problem pillars to activities through to impacts—to understand how reform measures are intended to achieve change.

This is the case in Sierra Leone and Uganda where well-defined theories of change articulate how positive change will be generated.

Operationalizing the theory of change

How do countries move from conceptualizing to generating concrete impacts through government and partner actions, and measuring success?

For the theory of change to be a powerful tool, certain elements must be in play:

1. Participatory dialogue and design

When generating the theory of change, stakeholders come together to discuss potential barriers to system transformation, where these barriers originate from to get to their root causes and the critical levers needed to overcome them.

Diverse constituency groups bring fresh thinking to how countries might meet complex challenges tied to education quality, access and learning. Discussions might also consider current stakeholder capacities and incentives, and how these impact on the way new information and initiatives might be taken up in practice, the level of readiness for innovation and the potential to bring about sustainable change at scale.

• In Chad, the theory of change was the result of broad discussions between national and local actors, grassroots organizations and beneficiaries of educational services across its 23 provinces. Conditions identified as indispensable to reaching the country’s priority reform objectives were: i) close engagement of national authorities through political decision making and leadership; ii) stakeholder and partner mobilization; iii) favorable budgetary decisions; and iv) the consolidation of all stakeholder resources and capacities to support reform implementation.

2. Roadmaps

Roadmaps illustrate how the theory of change will work in practice, confirming roles and responsibilities as well as identifying new ways to raise financing for equity and gender equality targets, and setting progress milestones to understand whether the theory of change is on track.

• In Tanzania (Mainland), the roadmap for the priority education reform was supported by the creation of a ‘partner matrix’ that outlined existing partner financing and programming commitments to different aspects of the priority pillars. This helped to assess where financing and programming bridges might be leveraged as well as any gaps to fill to achieve the priority reform area.

3. Coordination

Coordination is a linchpin to ensure all elements interact as expected to support the reform effort. In the areas of teaching and learning, dedicated coordination mechanisms can join elements across webs of policies, investments, assets, practices and partnerships to overcome the siloing of decision making and partner programming as well as guard against limited information sharing.

Between central and decentralized levels, coordinated action also aligns interconnected reform components across governance levels.

• In Tajikistan, the partnership compact has sought to increase coherency across partner support for competency-based education in learning standards, teacher professional training, curriculum and assessment. The Ministry of Education, with the support of GPE, created an Analytics and Coordination Unit in charge of steering and monitoring progress, including through better alignment between national actors and international development partners that intervene across education levels, and creating corresponding coordinating hubs in provinces.

4. Learning and adaptation

As transformation strategies progress, regular and ongoing feedback loops involving teachers, learners and other concerned stakeholders help decision makers to understand whether inputs and actions are generating impacts as intended and to take stock of any unintended consequences or setbacks.

Stakeholders might identify corrective measures and fine-tuning needed to accelerate the pace or get back on track to achieve a priority reform.

Through more substantive and periodic reviews, decision makers can also achieve a deeper understanding of: a) whether system components, relationships and interactions are evolving; b) which intervention areas are yielding the highest impact; and c) which adaptations and longer-term investments are needed to support scaling change and sustainability.

• In Mozambique, partners have focused on extracting knowledge beyond indicators, including information to answer these framing questions: how well are we using available resources and what are we obtaining as a direct result of activities? What are the most robust and lasting effects of our work? Learning gained from answering these questions is documented and contributes to how education partners refine transformation objectives, tools and activities.
• El Salvador is the first GPE partner country to conduct a midterm review of its partnership compact and is an example of how learning from a theory of change can be used to adapt plans for system transformation. The theory of change for its early learning reform was used not just to focus discussion with a broad cross-section of stakeholders, but also revisited based on evidence and lived experiences of implementation and reform ambitions. Going forward, the theory of change will be further invested in as a collective tool, and monitoring and evaluation will be strengthened with support from Social Impact (a technical partner financed by GPE).

Theories of change reflect an iterative process for how change is managed that sheds light on how system components and partners can work together more efficiently to support system transformation.

Each partner is situated within larger ecosystems and expected to play a role—and to see their role clearly—to support radically improved learning outcomes.