Samulo Mutale is all too aware of the effects of climate change. As an Education Research Officer in Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education, he knows that droughts, floods, and cyclones have huge impacts on children’s access to learning and school infrastructure.

Identifying those most at risk and developing strategies to strengthen resilience, however, is a new skill for him.

“Participating in the climate risk analysis workshop offered me many new insights, especially around areas I hadn’t encountered before,” Mutale said at a workshop in Harare in October 2024. “One valuable lesson was learning to identify and analyze climate-related risks to education, helping me understand how these hazards can impact equity, access, quality, and management within the education system.”

Over 8,800 kilometers away in Cambodia, His Excellency Dr Lim Sothea, Director General for Policy and Planning at the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport in Cambodia, shares what his country is facing amid risks like flooding and extreme heat.

“While there are obstacles and challenges, there are opportunities to adapt and improve,” he says. “Rising water levels and heavy rains may temporarily close schools, but this encourages the development of flexible learning models that can better withstand these events, helping students stay engaged in their studies even when schools are impacted.”

Zimbabwe and Cambodia are part of the Climate Smart Education Systems Initiative (CSESI), one of GPE’s multi-partner technical assistance initiatives, which brings together expertise from UNESCO, IIEP-UNESCO, and Save the Children.

Producing a climate risk analysis is key to shape and inform broader education planning efforts. Thanks to this initiative, Mutale and Sothea both have the insights needed to guide strategic actions, ensuring that the education sector in their country is prepared and resilient in the face of climate crises.

How does one go about conducting a climate risk analysis for the education sector?

To guide planners and policy makers like Mutale and Sothea, IIEP has developed a three-step methodology for climate risk analyses in the education sector.

This involves analyzing the effects of climate risks and identifying the existing strengths and weaknesses of the education system at the institutional, organizational and individual levels.

Step 1: Identifying and analyzing key climate stressors

A climate-risk analysis begins with an examination of a country’s main climate stressors by analyzing historical climate trends and future projections.

This first step focuses on understanding the specific nature and frequency of each stressor, such as heat waves, drought, floods and cyclones, and how they are likely to evolve in the context of climate change.

By grounding the analysis in historical and projected climate data, planners gain a clear understanding of the specific risks facing the education sector now and in the future.

Step 2: Understanding the effects of climate change on education

After mapping the main climate stressors, the next step is understanding the exposures and vulnerability of schools and the education system to climate risks and analyzing the impact on education at both national and subnational levels.

Climate change disrupts education in various ways, from limiting access to harming learning quality and upending education system management processes like school supervision and data collection.

At this stage, the risk analysis draws on a broad range of education data and information to explore four key areas: access to education, learning quality, system management, and equity in education.

Triangulating climate and education data also enables planners to quantify the impact of climate change on the education system.

For example, Sothea explains that “this approach helps identify a range of vulnerabilities within the education system and develop targeted strategies to protect schools from challenges like flooding, extreme heat, and other climate impacts. By evaluating these risks, authorities can design more resilient schools, such as adjusting school schedules to avoid peak heat hours and incorporating improved drainage systems to manage flood risks.”

Step 3: Analyzing capacities for climate resilience

Identifying risks and their impacts on education is only the beginning. It is equally crucial to assess the resources and capacities available to manage them.

Building resilience requires that countries bolster the ability of education stakeholders—from ministries to school leaders and students—to respond effectively to climate challenges.

This third step examines current capacities and identifies capacity gaps within the education system – from the individual through to the institutional level- to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Towards a climate-resilient future for education

Through this three-step climate risk analysis, education planners can better understand the threats posed by climate change and, more importantly, prepare to withstand and adapt to them.

By identifying climate stressors, assessing the effects of climate risks, and analyzing capacities, countries can subsequently develop effective strategies, plans and policies to safeguard education.

“CSESI provides us with valuable knowledge and tools to assess climate risks and develop strategies to protect schools from climate-related hazards, such as flooding and heat waves,” says Sothea. “This ensures that schools can continue functioning during climate-induced disruptions.”